The main goal of the rationality
process is optimizing, or to achieve the best solution possible, but in an
information-rich world, where time is a constraint and the resources to get
there are limited, selecting the best option from a sea of infinite options is
a gargantuan task. Knowing this, why is economy based on the principle that
humans always maximize their benefit when common sense says that they don't?
Economy is a science that involves humans as the main
driving force, as opposed to physics or chemistry where natural concepts are
involved. A rock does not decide to fall, it just does. A human might decide to
buy or not to buy something. Economy also involve quantities, instead of
qualities like the rest of the social sciences that study human qualities (even
in quantitative studies, numbers are used to study qualities of something or
someone). So Economy stands in an awkward place: for it to be a science it
needs to abstract its main driving force: human behavior. But to abstract human
behavior and model it, as we have learned so far, is a complex task.
Basic economic theory avoids complications and is
based around the premise that humans act rationally or, what is the same
maximize their benefits whenever they can. For a science that is so significant
in our days, that statement is a huge leap of faith. Economists might argue
that more complex economic theories address constraints and information gaps
and therefore, model the decision making scenario more correctly. But, still,
that's the issue.
When physicists and chemists model chemical reactions
or heat transference, they model processes that are governed by strict and
stable properties. Outcomes vary from a thread of connecting causes, and
scientists’ ability to predict them is always limited. But when they model a
process they know the effect that each introduced variable produces on the
outcome and while they might fail to account for some undetected variable and
predict wrongly, there's causality in the model: for example, in heat
transference, if one increases the heat flow and everything else remains
constant, the temperature will rise. In economy, that causality does not necessarily
exist: if a person has to choose between two options and one is more
attractive, does not mean it will be chosen. We can increase the attractiveness
and it still might not get chosen. We can even decrease the attractiveness and
it could be now chosen. There are ways to predict behavior, but they are not
infallible.
Is it okay, then, to base economy in the concept of
optimizing? Could optimizing be the underlying reason behind exponential growth
and the overexploitation of Earth's natural resources? Have we, in our continuous
search of optimums, spent unnecessary amounts of resources when we have
probably needed less?
H.A. Simon defines the concept of satisficing as
settling for a satisfactory solution instead of seeking the best one. Do you
think an economy of satisficing instead of one of optimizing is what we need
for a resource limited future?
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